NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Outcomes for the Final Week.
Entering the last weekend of the regular NFL campaign, just two postseason berths remain open. However, a great deal more is on the line, such as the coveted #1 rankings in each conference and four divisional crowns.
The schedule makers have crafted a perfect ending, with the final two postseason places to be decided in a pair of winner-take-all matchups.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The winner of the Steelers-Ravens contest will secure the #4 spot and a home-field advantage in the first playoff round. Meanwhile, the Bills and Los Angeles are set as wildcard teams.
The Texans need a victory coupled with a Jaguars defeat to jump from fifth to the third seed. The Broncos will secure the top seed with a win, but a setback could pave the way for New England or Jacksonville to snatch it.
NFC Standings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The NFC South will be claimed by the victor of the Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup, granting them the fourth seed. However, Carolina could still win the divisional title even with a loss, contingent on other outcomes.
The Packers are set at the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, though, is the battle for the NFC's top seed between the Seahawks and San Francisco, with a first-round bye and home playoff games hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The #1 team in both the AFC and NFC receives a crucial first-round bye and home games throughout the play-offs.
On Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six playoff teams face off: the second seed plays the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the second round, the top seeds join the competition, facing the weakest remaining seed. The conference championship games are then played at the best remaining team, underscoring the immense importance of securing that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This fierce rivalry comes to a head in the final game of the NFL season. With the AFC North and a postseason spot at stake, this is a genuine elimination scenario.
The Steelers have been inconsistent all year, while the Ravens started poorly but remain in contention. Player availability could be decisive: The Steelers may miss star receiver their top wideout, while Baltimore's quarterback Lamar Jackson is questionable with a health issue.
Running back Derrick Henry might emerge as the difference-maker for Baltimore in what promises to be a physical, defensive battle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the NFC West is at stake when the Seahawks visits San Francisco. The winner secures the NFC's top seed and the road to the championship game that it provides.
This game features an high-powered 49ers offense against a stingy Seattle defense. With QB Brock Purdy came back, San Francisco have been the league's highest scorers. Conversely, Seattle's unit is rated second best in the league.
The Seahawks' quarterback Sam Darnold must avoid mistakes that have haunted him this season. Whoever comes out on top gains a huge advantage for the postseason journey.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Both clubs enters this contest with strong form. The Buccaneers have lost seven of eight, while the Panthers have missed recent opportunities to clinch the division.
For Carolina it's simple: win and they're in. The Buccaneers, the scenario is trickier. Even with a win, they require another result from the Atlanta-New Orleans game to steal the divisional championship.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
Denver hold the cards for the AFC's top seed. A win over a Chargers team expected to sit starters gets it done.
Should Denver falter, the opportunity arises for the Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Broncos loss would give the #1 ranking to Bill Belichick's team.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They need a triumph and losses by the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an unlikely rise to the top. More importantly, a Jaguars loss could see them passed by the Texans in the division standings.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)