Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.